Winter 2025 (Q4) Investor Briefing

Northern Colorado Residential Real Estate

Executive Summary

Kelly McBartlett, Principal & Founder, MCM Collective

The real estate market throughout Northern Colorado (Fort Collins, Loveland, Longmont, Timnath, Berthoud, Estes Park) remains robust and dynamic as we enter the new year, 2026. For those watching regional trends, Northern Colorado has come out of 2025 with stability and strength, poised for an active sales season January–June in 2026. We anticipate a year filled with potential and are pleased to present you with updates that highlight the current market conditions. We'll take a look at the past 12 months in this issue and also look at what we might expect this year. Let us examine the market's activity in detail.

Sales Prices are Flat to Slightly Up: The year ended with most markets experiencing a slight increase in the average sales price year over year. For instance, the town of Timnath experienced a notable 6% sales price increase year over year, driven by low inventories of luxury homes which comprise an oversized portion of that market. Longmont was up 1%, and Berthoud up 3%. Major hubs like Fort Collins and Boulder were Flat. The only market to lose value was Estes Park with a 3% drop, driven by lower buyer demand and a higher than normal availability of homes for sale.

Number of Sold Listings Up YoY: Looking at the full year of data, despite lower buyer demand across the 2025 calendar year, most markets experienced modestly higher sales levels than 2024. This was largely driven by sellers providing incentives and more choices available to buyers. Windsor and Estes Park were up 5%, Fort Collins and Loveland up 3%, and Boulder up 2%. Comparatively, the broader Denver Metro area was down 4% driven by lower buyer demand, and Timnath was down 13% driven by lower inventory levels.

Inventory Levels Up YoY: Entering the new year, we’re seeing most Northern Colorado markets experiencing more homes available than this time last year, giving more options for buyers at a time that seasonally typically has low inventory levels. Boulder has 20% more homes on the market than this time last year. Loveland is up 14% and Estes Park up 6%. However, Berthoud is down 9% and Fort Collins down 1%.

Luxury Homes (top 5% of the market) Values Up, Inventory Down: If you have been following the national luxury market, it’s no surprise that values are up across the Northern Colorado region: Estes Park’s average luxury sales price is up 11% YoY to $2,250,000; Fort Collins is up 2% and Longmont up 11%. With the context that inventory levels of luxury homes are down, it’s no wonder that prices have increased in the past 12 months. Fort Collins inventory levels for luxury homes are down 29% YoY, Berthoud down 12%, and Windsor down 25%.

What to Expect in 2026: With mortgage interest rates mostly stable now for a quarter and experiencing subtle downward movement, and Fed interest rates seemingly coming down, we are watching the buyer market in Q1 2026 for signs of demand which will guide the rest of the year. We’re watching headlines for phrases like “mortgage applications are up” or “the number of pending home sales is up over this time last year…” as both will be strong indicators that the Northern Colorado market will be experiencing a robust spring. For buyers, we recommend getting in the game early this year to avoid potential competitive situations if buyer demand is high and inventory levels get absorbed quickly. For sellers, we recommend closely watching inventory levels in your specific Northern Colorado neighborhood and market, as timing of entering the market will be highly important this year. A delay of a week could shift the market dramatically.

The Market at a Glance — Northern Colorado (Q4 2025)

Northern Colorado closed 2025 with expanding inventory and stable pricing—signals of normalization rather than correction .

Northern Colorado vs. U.S. National Housing Market

Against national housing trends, Northern Colorado continues to perform as a fundamentals-driven market rather than a cyclical or overbuilt one.

National Backdrop (2025)

Across the U.S., 2025 was marked by:

• Declining transaction volume due to affordability constraints

• Flat to modestly declining prices in many metros

• Inventory growth driven by longer days on market

• Increased buyer selectivity, particularly below the luxury tier

Many national markets entered late 2025 with four to six months of inventory, shifting leverage decisively toward buyers.

Northern Colorado in Context

• Pricing Stability: Single-family pricing up ~1% YoY; condos flat

• Inventory Growth Without Distress: Active listings +12% YoY with no price compression

• Sales Resilience: Sold listings down just 3% YoY, outperforming national averages

• Balanced Conditions: ~3.1 months of inventory versus buyer-heavy conditions nationally

• Luxury Alignment: High-end pricing strength mirrors national luxury trends driven by equity-rich buyers

Interpretation: Northern Colorado absorbed higher interest rates without correction, reinforcing confidence for investors, relocation buyers, and long-term owners.

Sector Insights: Where to Watch, Tactic, and Trend

Luxury

Where to Watch
Estes Park, Longmont, Fort Collins (upper-quartile neighborhoods)

Tactic
Monitor inventory closely; scarcity—not demand growth—is driving outcomes. Buyers should expect limited selection, while sellers must price precisely.

Trend
Luxury inventory declined as much as 29% YoY in Fort Collins, supporting price gains of ~11% in Estes Park and Longmont.

Legacy (Long-Term Ownership)

Where to Watch
Boulder, Fort Collins, central Longmont

Tactic
Prioritize quality locations and long-term livability over short-term timing. Volatility risk remains low.

Trend
Legacy markets showed flat pricing with rising inventory, creating entry opportunities without eroding long-term value.

Investment

Where to Watch
Loveland, Longmont, select Windsor and Berthoud neighborhoods

Tactic
Target submarkets where inventory growth outpaces price appreciation. Leverage seller incentives and conservative underwriting.

Trend
Loveland inventory rose 22% YoY while prices increased just 2%, improving acquisition conditions relative to 2021–2023.

Relocation

Where to Watch
Northern Colorado broadly, with emphasis on Fort Collins and Longmont

Tactic
Buyers should engage early in Q1–Q2 ahead of spring absorption. Employers should plan for renewed inbound demand.

Trend
Relative affordability to national averages and lifestyle appeal continue to drive relocation demand.

Expanded Regional Performance — Side-by-Side Comparison (Q4 2025)

Strategic Summary: Opportunity Areas

Conclusion

Northern Colorado enters 2026 with the characteristics of a healthy, recalibrated housing market: increased inventory, stable pricing, and durable demand drivers. Compared to national averages, the region has normalized without correction—creating opportunity through precision, timing, and local expertise rather than volatility.

For investors, legacy buyers, relocation partners, and luxury clients alike, success in 2026 will depend on where to focus, how to act, and understanding the trend beneath the headline—areas where MCM Collective continues to provide differentiated insight.