In Perspective: Northern Colorado Real Estate Market Update | February 2026

Executive Summary

The Northern Colorado real estate market in February 2026 presents a compelling narrative, exhibiting trends that diverge from typical seasonal expectations and conventional wisdom. A closer look at the data reveals a market characterized by tightening inventory, sustained pricing power, and an unseasonal surge in buyer activity.

Inventory Contraction Signals Buyer Urgency: Nationally, the surge in under-contract properties—up 5% year-over-year—is a strong leading indicator of sustained buyer engagement, suggesting robust sales growth heading into the spring. Concurrently, local inventory remains largely constrained: while Fort Collins saw a modest 1% increase, Estes Park remained flat, and several cities experienced significant declines (Longmont down 6%, Berthoud down 10%, and Timnath down 13%). The practical implication for the market is a necessity for buyers to act decisively, while sellers should anticipate increased competition for their listings if this trajectory persists.

Months of Inventory Indicates Market Reversal: The overall reduction in Months of Inventory (MOI) compared to the previous year further corroborates a shift in market dynamics, potentially signaling an end to the recent eight-month sales slowdown. Berthoud's MOI is down 6% and Longmont's is down 13%. An exception to this trend is Loveland, which has seen a 29% increase in MOI, primarily attributable to the influx of new construction.

Resilience in Average Sales Prices: Market-wide, average sales prices have remained stable or have appreciated slightly, defying any anticipated slump from slower sales rates in the preceding six months. Windsor, for example, is up 4% to an average of $720,315. Boulder remains essentially flat at $1,627,160, with Longmont being the only city to register a minimal decline of 1%, settling at $731,253.

Sharp Decline in Luxury Inventory: The high-end segment of the market (the top 5%) shows a dramatic reduction in available inventory. Berthoud's new luxury listings, for instance, have fallen by 57% month-over-month and 30% year-over-year, indicating a significant pause by luxury sellers as they reassess market conditions. Intriguingly, this tight supply has translated into notable price appreciation in the luxury sector: Fort Collins saw its average luxury sale price rise 42% to $2,236,523 in January 2026, while Windsor was up 29% to $1,931,899. Astute luxury sellers may benefit from accelerating their listing plans to capitalize on the currently intense supply shortage.

Our Current Market Assessment: The current environment presents a complex interplay of factors: rising under-contract activity, which is atypical for this time of year, coinciding with declining inventory and favorable interest rates. Given the number of properties that have lingered on the market since the previous fall, buyers should consider the full breadth of available inventory, not solely new spring listings. These seasoned properties may represent unique opportunities for favorable terms and value. For prospective sellers, the data suggests a strategic advantage in moving listing dates forward to capture the momentum of this unusually active early spring market. We remain available to provide a personalized evaluation of your situation and craft a strategy that best serves your goals.

By Kelly McBartlett, Principal & Founder

Northern Colorado in the National Context: Tightening Ahead of the Curve

Nationally, housing activity entering 2026 is defined by cautious buyer re-entry following late-2025 rate volatility. Early national indicators—such as rising pending activity—suggest demand is returning unevenly by region. Northern Colorado’s data indicates it is tightening earlier than the typical seasonal pattern, which often precedes competitive spring conditions.

At the regional level, Northern Colorado homes for sale are up 6% YoY, but this headline number obscures important local dynamics. In Fort Collins, inventory is only +1% YoY, while Estes Park is flat YoY. Meanwhile, inventory has contracted meaningfully in Longmont (–6% YoY), Berthoud (–10% YoY), and Timnath (–12% YoY).

Strategic implication: Buyers and sellers experience markets locally, not regionally. Tightening in core cities can drive competition even when the broader region appears balanced.

Inventory, Absorption, and Supply Pipelines

Months of Inventory (MOI) reinforces that the market is fragmenting by supply pipeline rather than moving in lockstep. Longmont’s MOI is down 13% YoY and Berthoud’s is down 8% YoY, signaling faster absorption relative to last year. In contrast, Loveland’s MOI is up 29% YoY, coinciding with a 38% YoY increase in homes for sale—a clear indication that new construction delivery is reshaping local supply dynamics.

Strategic implication: Markets with constrained resale inventory will feel tighter faster; markets absorbing new supply will move more slowly into spring equilibrium.

Sales Activity: Uneven Re-Engagement

Closed sales patterns mirror national re-entry dynamics: demand returns first to liquid, employment-anchored markets. Fort Collins posted a 6% YoY increase in sold listings, while several surrounding markets experienced YoY declines.

Strategic implication: Early-cycle momentum is selective. Where transaction velocity is returning, competitive dynamics can normalize faster than regional headlines imply.

Pricing: Structural Resilience Amid Volume Friction

Price behavior aligns with national patterns observed in supply-constrained regions: transaction volume softens before pricing resets—and often pricing never meaningfully resets. In Northern Colorado, Windsor’s single-family pricing is up 4% YoY, Fort Collins is flat YoY, and Boulder remains flat YoY, with Longmont down just 1% YoY.

Strategic implication: Sellers retain pricing power in most submarkets; buyers should expect negotiation leverage to vary materially by submarket and price tier rather than assuming broad-based softness.

Luxury Market: A Scarcity-Driven Cycle

Luxury conditions in Northern Colorado are increasingly shaped by inventory withdrawal. New luxury listings are down sharply YoY in multiple markets, including Berthoud (–57% YoY) and Boulder (–40% YoY), while luxury homes for sale are down 20% YoY in Fort Collins and 30% YoY in Berthoud.

At the same time, pricing has responded to this constrained supply: Fort Collins luxury pricing is up 42% YoY, and Windsor luxury pricing is up 29% YoY.

Strategic implication: This is not speculative demand expansion; it is a scarcity premium. Luxury sellers who delayed in late 2025 have created a thin supply environment now benefiting those who list into early 2026.

Reading the Market: Strategy Without Overreach

The combined data points suggest a market transitioning out of a late-2025 slowdown into a more competitive posture—but not uniformly. Northern Colorado is fragmenting by supply delivery, price tier, and buyer segment, mirroring national patterns where markets with durable in-migration and limited resale supply recover first.

For buyers, the practical takeaway is to expect uneven competition and to differentiate between newly listed spring inventory and properties that have lingered since fall 2025. For sellers, the data supports thoughtful acceleration into early spring where supply is constrained, while recognizing that pricing and absorption remain sensitive to micro-market conditions.

Closing Perspective

Northern Colorado’s early-2026 housing market is defined less by a single narrative than by the interaction of national demand re-entry with local supply realities. Tightening inventory in several core cities, stable pricing across most price tiers, and a scarcity-driven luxury rebound suggest a market that is regaining momentum—selectively and unevenly.

As always, we remain available to contextualize these broader trends within your specific goals and timing, and to translate macro signals into a strategy aligned with your situation.