MCM Collective September Market Report

Luxury. Legacy. Investment.

Executive Summary

By Kelly McBartlett, Principal at MCM Collective

October is here, and not only does it come with crisp air and colorful leaves, but also a vibrant and dynamic real estate market. We’ve got some exciting updates from across Northern Colorado that will have you falling in love with the market all over again.

From sales ticking up in Fort Collins and Timnath to inventory giving buyers plenty of options, there’s a lot to unpack. So grab your fall-inspired latte, get cozy, and let’s dive into what’s happening in the market.

Sales are up year-over-year across the region: Driven by reduced interest rates and long-standing pent-up demand, Fort Collins is up 17% for sold homes YoY, Loveland is up 29%, Longmont is up 3%, and Timnath is up an impressive 53%. Berthoud is down 21%, and Evergreen is down 5% year-over-year.

Inventory is on the rise: Helping to drive sales, inventory is up in almost every city, giving buyers more choice. Fort Collins is up 20% YoY, Estes Park is up 31%, and Longmont is up 20%. Windsor is up only 4%, and Berthoud is down slightly by 1%.

Months of inventory is increasing: This metric indicates how quickly existing inventory would be absorbed at the current sales pace. Fort Collins is up 11% to 3.1 months (still the lowest in the region and above its typical 1-2 months). Estes Park is up 22% to 6.7 months, the highest in the region, while Denver Metro is up 16% to 3.5 months. Windsor shrank slightly to 3.4 months, down 11%, while Boulder remained unchanged at 5.3 months.

Prices remain steady: A telling indicator of what buyers are willing to pay, sales prices have held flat compared to last year, reassuring homeowners about the resilience of property values despite lower sales volumes. Fort Collins’ single-family prices remain at $714,909, attached homes at $414,945. Timnath is up 6% YoY, driven by new construction costs, while Estes Park is down 4% to $892,027.

Luxury homes show mixed results: The top 5% of sales reveal divergent trends. Timnath saw constrained supply (luxury inventory down 33%), with sales down 20% and months of supply down 51% to 3.5 months. In contrast, Fort Collins posted strong luxury performance, with closed sales up 100% YoY, even as supply tightened by 42% to 3.8 months and active listings declined by 21%. Estes Park faces a slower market with 11.5 months of supply, and Boulder carries 18.5 months of supply, signaling a slower absorption rate. Notable top-end sales included $3.15M in Estes Park, $2.5M in Longmont, and $8.5M in Denver.

Now is the time to act: With mortgage rates hovering near 6% and inventory levels not seen in five years, buyers who act now can take advantage of more negotiable conditions before the anticipated competitive surge in spring 2026. Sellers should expect a healthy pace through year-end and start preparing early for 2026 to capture demand.

At MCM Collective at Compass, we have a full toolkit of proprietary strategies to tailor our approach to any buyer or seller situation. We’re ready to help you reach your real estate goals—wherever you stand today.

The General Market

The September data across Northern Colorado, Boulder Valley, Denver Metro, and the Foothills underscores a market transitioning from the sharp peaks and troughs of the past two years toward steadier conditions.

Regional Nuances

• Northern Colorado continues to lead in transaction growth, with active listings up 19% YoY and closed sales up 9%, supported by stable pricing (+2% to $637,074).

• Boulder Valley saw a milder inventory increase (+13%) and closed sales up 10%, suggesting a balanced market where supply and demand are broadly aligned.

• Denver Metro displayed similar dynamics, with inventory up 16%, closed sales up 7%, and pricing inching higher (+1% to $780,369).

• The Foothills experienced the steepest inventory growth (+26%) but flat sales, signaling more of a buyer’s market emerging in mountain and rural-lifestyle areas.

City-Level Performance

Within these regions, individual cities highlight how hyperlocal factors shape outcomes:

• Fort Collins sustained healthy demand (+17% closed sales YoY) while maintaining steady pricing ($714,909 single-family; $414,945 attached).

• Loveland’s sales surged 29%, driven by better affordability relative to neighboring cities.

• Timnath’s mix of new construction fueled a 6% increase in prices and a 53% jump in sales, positioning it as a growth market.

• Estes Park, by contrast, saw higher inventory (+31%) and slower absorption (6.7 months of supply), creating more negotiating room for buyers.

• Evergreen, in the Foothills, had a 36% increase in inventory but a modest 5% decline in sales, reflecting more discretionary buying patterns.

Key Takeaway

The general market is no longer defined by rapid appreciation or scarcity. Instead, it reflects an emerging equilibrium, giving both buyers and sellers more predictable conditions. Buyers gain choice and negotiating leverage, while sellers can still achieve competitive prices if they align strategy with market realities.

The Luxury Market

Luxury activity remains regionally fragmented, underscoring the importance of localized expertise for both buyers and sellers.

Regional Nuances

• Northern Colorado posted 28% growth in closed luxury sales with average prices steady (+1% to $1.59M), indicating resilient high-end demand.

• Boulder Valley’s luxury market saw limited transactions but higher pricing (+15% to $5.12M), illustrating continued scarcity in true trophy assets.

• Denver Metro benefited from strong absorption, with closed luxury sales up 61%, but average prices dropped (–17% to $3.4M) due to a shift in the composition of homes sold.

• The Foothills experienced a remarkable 250% increase in closed luxury transactions, even as the average price declined (–46% to $3.2M), suggesting that more mid-tier luxury homes traded hands.

City-Level Performance

• Fort Collins luxury sales doubled (+100%), with total volume surging 90% to $16.5M, though average prices eased slightly (–5% to $1.37M).

• Estes Park luxury activity rose 125%, supported by a 30% price increase to $1.63M, driven by demand for lifestyle and second homes.

• Timnath’s luxury segment softened, with inventory down 33% and sales off 20%, underscoring the supply-driven nature of this sub-market.

• Boulder remained the top-tier luxury hub, with an average price of $5.12M and a highest sale at $5.65M.

• Denver Metro’s top transaction hit $8.5M (+124% YoY), affirming the market’s depth for rare flagship properties.

Key Takeaway

The luxury landscape is marked by regional bifurcation:

• Northern Colorado and Boulder Valley exhibit price resilience, anchored by limited inventory and strong buyer intent.

• Denver Metro and the Foothills show opportunity for value-driven buyers as mid-tier luxury inventory changes hands at lower price points.

Strategic Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

• For Buyers: Broader inventory and steadier prices create entry points across most regions, especially in Denver Metro and the Foothills. Acting before the expected spring surge could mean stronger negotiating positions and less competition.

• For Sellers: Pricing strategy is critical—over-ambition risks prolonged time on market, particularly in higher-inventory segments like Estes Park and Boulder luxury. Well-prepared, well-positioned homes continue to attract motivated buyers.

• For Investors: Market bifurcation favors precision. Growth in Northern Colorado and price strength in Boulder support long-term holds, while softer pricing in the Foothills and Denver Metro may offer shorter-term acquisition opportunities.

MCM Collective’s Perspective:
September’s market reflects a region in measured transition—more balanced, still resilient, and rewarding to clients who pair timing with strategy. Whether seeking a primary residence, a legacy property, or an investment foothold, Northern Colorado and its neighboring regions continue to offer compelling opportunities for discerning buyers and sellers.