MCM Collective Market Report | October 2025

Executive Summary | Kelly McBartlett

The real estate market across Northern Colorado remains vibrant and dynamic, aligning perfectly with the arrival of November’s crisp air and colorful foliage! We have exciting updates that will reignite your enthusiasm for the current market. Notably, inventory levels are stabilizing across the region, and buyers are benefiting from increased inventory, offering sellers some reprieve. Let's delve into the market's activity. Grab your favorite holiday beverage, get comfortable, and explore what's happening.

Inventory Levels are Moderating: Most of 2025 so far has largely shown large increases in the number of homes for sale across Northern Colorado. October, driven by many homes withdrawing from the market, has shown a stabilizing in the number of homes on the market. For instance, Estes Park is up a modest 14% versus this time last year, Longmont up 15% and Denver up 13%. Some markets have even shown a decrease with Berthoud down 12% and Timnath down 16% versus this time last year. All of this is a welcome indicator for sellers, but could be a leading indicator that the market is tightening for would be buyers.

Number of Sold Listings Down: Fort Collins saw a 7% decrease in the number of homes sold, Bethoud was down 38% versus this time last year, and Windsor down 8%, all driven by lower buyer demand and higher interest rates in September. Interest rate for mortgages have started to drop, however, so we may see these numbers reverse. The one bright spot in the region: Estes Park was up 89% versus this time last year, driven by late summer purchases based on higher inventory levels in September and encouraged by seller price reductions.

Sales Prices are Stable: In almost every market, the average sales prices were nearly identifiable to last year: Fort Collins was up $116 versus last year, Denver up 1% and Timnath up 4% tied by Berthoud (the highest in the region). The only market seeing a decrease was Estes Park, driven by seller discounts due to higher inventory levels. The silver lining: property owners have largely maintained their property values through this slower buyer demand season.

Luxury Homes (top 5% of the market) Sales Numbers Up: The top end of the market showed increased numbers of homes sold in October 2025 versus this time last year; Fort Collins was up 33%, Estes Park saw 3 luxury homes sold this year versus none last year and Longmont was up 41%, all largely driven by more homes available for sale. Average sales prices in this segment of the market were largely flat if not declining, driven by little to no movement in the Ultra Luxury segment of the market, the top 1% of sales, which saw almost no movement at all in October 2025 in Northern Colorado. Overall, luxury represented a place of strength for our Northern Colorado cities.

Looking to 2026: For sellers on the market now, although it may be tempting to remove your property from the market, we’d advise you to stay on the market with the reduced inventory levels; your chances of finding a buyer are getting better with every passing day. For buyers who can take action now, your window of opportunity is closing before spring 2026 which may prove to be a competitive season. And for sellers or buyers who are looking to 2026, beginning conversations with your real estate agent now is critical to be able to position yourself for success and stay ahead of the fray. MCM Collective at Compass holds a full toolkit of proprietary strategies to tailor our approach to any buyer or seller situation; we’re ready to help you reach your real estate goals, regardless of where you stand today.

Regional Overview: Northern Colorado’s Balancing Act

After months of sharp growth in active listings, October 2025 marked a measured plateau. Across Northern Colorado, active inventory reached 3,437 homes, a 16 percent increase from 2024, indicating that the market is adjusting rather than overheating. At 3.55 months of inventory, the region remains balanced—up 8 percent YoY but still below the threshold typically associated with a true buyer’s market.

Closings slowed modestly (-5 percent YoY), consistent with seasonal cool-offs and the lag from September’s high-rate environment. Average single-family prices remained anchored near $639,000, a modest 2 percent annual gain, while condo prices hovered around $412,000 (+1 percent). This stability suggests that price discipline among sellers and measured buyer activity have kept volatility low.

City Highlights

Fort Collins held its ground with a 17 percent inventory increase but only a 7 percent decline in sales. Average home prices remained flat at about $717K, and months of inventory (3.0) signals continued health in mid-market transactions.

Berthoud saw a 12 percent decline in active listings and a 38 percent drop in sales amid higher rates, yet its 4 percent price gain to $770K reflects resilience in newer inventory segments.

Estes Park, the outlier, experienced an 89 percent surge in sales and a 14 percent rise in inventory, as late-summer discounting and seasonal tourism-driven purchases shifted demand forward.

Loveland and Windsor tracked regional norms—inventory rose 24 and -3 percent respectively, sales dipped around 8 percent, and pricing stayed within 1–2 percent of 2024 levels.

Timnath registered a 16 percent drop in inventory and a 21 percent decline in sales, but its average price rose 4 percent to $885K, the largest gain in the region.

Longmont (+15 percent inventory) and Boulder (+9 percent) saw flat sales activity but maintained high average prices—$744K and $1.64 million respectively.

Luxury Market: Resilient but Segmented

At the top 5 percent of listings, Northern Colorado’s luxury sector proved a pocket of strength. Luxury sales volume jumped 53 percent YoY region-wide on flat pricing.

• Fort Collins (+33%), Loveland (+100%), and Longmont (+43%) led with higher absorption due to greater availability and realistic pricing.

• Berthoud and Timnath showed mixed signals as inventory contracted sharply (-44% in Timnath) and average prices fell due to lower ultra-luxury activity.

• Boulder’s average luxury price declined 17 percent to $5.3 million, reflecting a pause in the $6M+ tier rather than a broad-based retrenchment.

Across the region, luxury inventory stood at 7.2 months of supply, down 12 percent year-over-year — the first sign of tightening in this segment since early 2023.

Legacy Perspective

For long-tenured owners, this season’s stability confirms enduring value in Northern Colorado’s legacy properties. Despite muted sales volumes, average values are essentially flat to slightly positive, demonstrating resistance to rate shocks. Sellers holding homes 20 years or longer continue to benefit from scarcity in mature neighborhoods and steady post-pandemic migration into established communities.
As 2026 approaches, legacy sellers are well-positioned to capture qualified buyer interest without major price concessions.

Investment Perspective

Investor activity slowed modestly as financing costs remained restrictive through September. However, as rates began to retreat in late October (30-year fixed averaging 7.1% versus 7.6% in September, per Freddie Mac), buyers re-entered value-oriented submarkets such as Weld and Larimer Counties. Cap-rate compression has eased slightly, and Northern Colorado’s two-to-three-year rental growth trajectory remains attractive relative to the Front Range average.

Relocation Perspective

Inbound demand remains robust, particularly from California and Texas, where equity-rich buyers continue to seek Northern Colorado’s combination of climate resilience, outdoor access, and relative affordability compared with Boulder and Denver. Many relocating buyers remain cash-heavy or use bridge financing to close quickly, keeping high-end inventory fluid even as conventional loan demand lags.

National Context

Nationally, the U.S. housing market showed tentative momentum in October. According to NAR and Census Bureau data, existing-home sales rose 2 percent MoM while median prices held near $394,000. Inventory remained tight at 3.6 months supply nationwide — nearly identical to Northern Colorado’s levels. Luxury sales cooled slightly in coastal markets but expanded in the Mountain West and Sun Belt, a trend Northern Colorado mirrored. Mortgage rates eased to their lowest since spring, and forward indicators suggest renewed transactional energy heading into Q1 2026.

Looking Ahead

Northern Colorado is entering winter with balanced inventory, steady prices, and incremental luxury strength — a foundation for measured growth in 2026. Buyers who act now are likely to find motivated sellers and more favorable financing terms than those who wait for spring competition. Sellers who stay listed through the holidays stand to capture a disproportionate share of motivated buyers.

MCM Collective’s advisory approach — anchored in Luxury, Legacy, Investment, and Relocation strategy — remains focused on turning market intelligence into advantage, ensuring clients thrive in an environment defined by precision and possibility.