June is typically the month that sees the highest number of sales throughout the year, and we’ll see if that holds true this year. In recent weeks, the national data is showing that inventory is now below where it was at this time last year, a surprise shift in what was expected to happen this year. Looking at the data in Northern Colorado, things look a little different yet inventory levels are dropping. Let’s dive in.  Average Prices Up. In nearly every market, the rolling 12 month for home prices is up: Windsor is up 5% year over year, Loveland up 1% and Fort Collins up 2%. Outliers exist however: Timnath is down 10% and Boulder down 7%. The positive trend is an indicator that sellers are not taking lower prices and buyers seem willing to pay at or above asking prices in many cities. Number of Homes Sold Down: The transaction volume is down across the region in nearly every city. Denver is down 5% this May versus last May, Fort Collins down 7%, Timnath down 28% and Windsor down 18%. This would normally be a cause for concern, yet as we see with our next metric, this is more a symptom of lower inventory.  Months of Inventory Dropping:  Months of Inventory, a ratio of homes sold versus homes available, shows most markets are showing declines. A balanced market shows 6 months of inventory. Estes Park is down 22%, Timnath down 10% and Windsor down 3%. The number of homes sold combined with the lower inventory levels paints the picture: sales are down in the region because inventory is declining or stagnant, which seems to match the national trend. Ultimately, this will lead to price increase at a faster rate over the next 12 months if the trends continue. Luxury Inventory Shrinking: (top 5% of the market). The top of the market has been a source of strength for the region over the past 12 months with a healthy amount of inventory and sales happening. Sales seem to be continuing at the same pace or up slightly (Fort Collins is up 35% YoY; Timnath up 25% and Denver Metro up 18%). In a worrying signal, inventory is sliding in most markets: Fort Collins is down 8%, Berthoud down 7%, Loveland down 23%, Windsor down 29% and Denver Metro down 4%. This will cause choices for buyers to be constrained and may force competition amongst buyers for desirable properties. It can also be a sign that prices may rise in the luxury segment at a faster pace through the rest of 2026. Overall, Inventory is Down. The common theme heading into a busy summer season: inventory is down across almost all price points and all cities in the region. What does this mean: we’re likely to see heightened competition in the market for buyers who are ready. It also means that there may not be as many choices available for buyers, and that they may have to be prepared to act when they see the house the really like. For sellers, on the fence, it’s a good time to list now to take advantage of the market. And if you prepare your home well with expert guidance, you’ll negotiate great terms for your sale. Utilizing all of our proprietary buyer and seller technology, strategy and marketing systems, we’re on your side to create success. Feel welcome to contact us to discuss your situation. 

Where Colorado sits within the broader picture

The national housing conversation in May 2026 carries a degree of cognitive dissonance. Headline inventory figures suggest conditions are easing — nationally, active listings were running roughly 4–5% above year-ago levels through April — yet median sale prices simultaneously reached record highs near $417,700, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed from a 2026 low of 6.09% back toward 6.5% by late May, partly driven by inflationary pressure tied to global energy markets. The NAR's own April data showed just 4.4 months of supply nationally — still short of the 6-month threshold that signals a balanced market.

Most forecasters now characterize 2026 as a year of rebalancing rather than correction: nominal prices expected to rise modestly (Fannie Mae projects 3.2% for the year), while real, inflation-adjusted values remain roughly flat given CPI running above 3.5%. That "plateau" narrative maps reasonably to what our regional data reflects — but with a Northern Colorado twist. Where national inventory is edging upward, ours is flat to declining. That divergence matters considerably for buyers and sellers alike.

Northern Colorado: stability at the surface, pressure beneath

The region's headline numbers are deceptively calm. Northern Colorado's homes-for-sale count is essentially flat year-over-year (3,336 vs. 3,325), but sold listings have declined 13% — the sharpest drop across all the regions tracked. Read alongside one another, those two data points tell a precise story: it isn't that buyers have retreated; it's that the homes they want to buy aren't coming to market at the pace they did a year ago.

The rolling 12-month average single-family price at $630,965 is down just 1% — a figure that in isolation reads as softening, but in context reflects a market absorbing higher carrying costs (rates) without meaningful seller capitulation. Sellers, by and large, are not discounting. The attached and condo segment, at $399,819 — down 3% — shows somewhat greater price sensitivity, consistent with that segment's higher exposure to rate-driven affordability constraints.

A comparison across neighboring regions is instructive. Boulder Valley at 3.8 months of inventory (down 12% year-over-year) and Denver Metro at 3.38 months (down 8%) are both compressing more aggressively than Northern Colorado. The Foothills, at just 2.8 months, represent the tightest sub-market on the Front Range. None of these are buyer's-market conditions.

Diverging signals by market: where the nuance lives

Aggregate figures, while directionally useful, can obscure the granularity that drives individual decisions. At the city level, the picture in Northern Colorado is more varied — and in several cases, more interesting.

Fort Collins

The region's largest city presents a portrait of modest, durable strength. Homes for sale are up 3%, but sold listings have declined 7% — a combination that holds inventory steady at 2.8 months, unchanged from a year ago. The average single-family price has risen 2% to $723,684, a figure that suggests buyers remain engaged and competitive in desirable neighborhoods. The attached segment has softened slightly (down 4% to $404,573), likely reflecting rate sensitivity among first-time and trade-up buyers. On balance, Fort Collins remains a seller's market, and well-prepared listings continue to transact with conviction.

Windsor

Windsor is perhaps the most compelling story in the region this month. Homes for sale are down 12%, sold listings down 18%, and inventory at 3.5 months — yet the average single-family price is up 6% to $724,794. That price appreciation in the face of declining volume is a strong signal: the homes that are selling are selling well, and sellers who do list in Windsor are doing so from a position of relative strength. Windsor's attached segment declined 9%, suggesting the premium is concentrated in the detached, single-family market.

Loveland

Loveland's metrics are broadly stable — homes for sale up 8%, sold listings essentially flat (+2%), inventory unchanged at 3.3 months. Average single-family prices edged up 1% to $629,397. It is a market in equilibrium, without significant directional pressure in either direction. For buyers, that translates to a degree of negotiating room; for sellers, measured price expectations yield predictable outcomes.

Timnath

Timnath warrants careful reading. The headlines — a 10% decline in single-family prices to $848,510 and a 26% drop in sold listings — look concerning at first glance. However, months of inventory fell 10% to 4.4, and the attached segment posted a dramatic 36% increase in average price (to $645,690). The latter figure is almost certainly a composition effect — a small transaction volume in a price range that can be moved materially by a handful of atypical sales — and should be treated as directional rather than definitive. The single-family price decline, by contrast, may partly reflect product mix: fewer high-end spec homes transacting this period. Timnath remains a market to watch closely.

Berthoud & Estes Park

Both markets show inventory building: Berthoud up 9% in homes for sale with inventory at 5.3 months (up 15%), Estes Park down in homes for sale (15%) but with inventory still elevated at 6.2 months — just above the technical equilibrium threshold. Estes Park's 22% year-over-year inventory reduction is notable and may reflect the seasonal character of that market correcting after an oversupplied period. Average single-family prices in Estes Park are flat at $896,209, which, for a mountain recreation market navigating lifestyle-driven demand cycles, represents a degree of resilience.

The upper market: volume strengthening, supply thinning

The luxury segment — defined as the top 5% of all regional transactions — operates with its own mechanics, and May's data reveals a market where closed sales are accelerating even as new supply contracts. That combination is among the most powerful technical setups a premium market can produce.

Across Northern Colorado (threshold: $1.15M+), closed luxury sales rose 10% year-over-year to 66 transactions. Total sales volume reached $101.2M — up 6% from $95M in May 2025. New luxury listings, however, fell sharply: down 30% to 124, with homes for sale contracting 12% to 363. Months of supply dropped 17% to 6.3 months — still technically near equilibrium, but trending meaningfully toward constrained territory.

The average sale price decline — from $1.63M to $1.53M — is notable but requires interpretation. It may reflect a shift in product mix rather than broad value erosion: fewer trophy transactions in the $2M+ range depressing the mean while the core $1.15M–$1.75M stratum transacts with consistency. Larimer County's highest sale came in at $2.75M (down from $4.1M), while Weld County's top sale rose to $3.15M (up from $2.9M) — illustrating the compositional volatility inherent in thin-volume premium data.

The sharpest story in city-level luxury data belongs to Fort Collins, where closed luxury sales jumped 35% and total volume surged 47% to $36M — despite a modest contraction in homes for sale. Windsor added 38% more closed luxury transactions and saw total volume climb 40% to $17.1M. Loveland's luxury sales held steady in count while inventory fell 23%, a compression that, if it persists, will begin to register in price.

Boulder Valley's luxury picture (threshold: $4M+) is more complex. The average sale price declined 27% to $4.87M, and only 4 closed transactions were recorded — a sample so thin that meaningful statistical inference is limited. The highest Boulder sale came in at $5.8M, versus $14.5M a year prior: a stark contrast that speaks more to what came to market than to any structural price adjustment. Total volume fell 42% to $19.5M for the same reason. Buyers and sellers in Boulder's ultra-prime segment should regard month-to-month comparisons with appropriate caution; annual trend lines are the more reliable guide here.

Denver Metro luxury (threshold: $2.4M+) is among the more encouraging reads in the data. Closed sales rose 18%, total volume advanced 7% to $237.4M, and months of supply fell 20% to 5.8. The highest recorded sale — $9.5M — matches very nearly the prior year's $9.65M peak, suggesting the ceiling of the market is intact. The Foothills luxury segment (Evergreen area, $2.4M+) saw closed sales rise 33% and volume climb 14%, with inventory also expanding 9% — one of the few markets where supply is growing alongside demand.

What the data suggests for buyers, sellers, and investors

For buyers

June historically represents the highest-volume month of the year, and there is little in this data to suggest 2026 will be an exception. What it does suggest is that available inventory will not meaningfully expand to meet that seasonal demand surge. Buyers who arrive at summer with financing confirmed, search parameters clearly defined, and decision timelines compressed will be in the most advantageous position. Hesitation in a sub-4-month inventory environment tends to be expensive — not because prices spike overnight, but because well-positioned properties do not wait for second looks.

For buyers at or above the $1.15M threshold in Northern Colorado, the window of relative choice is narrowing. New luxury listings are down 30% year-over-year. The inventory that does exist in this segment is increasingly seasoned rather than fresh — meaning the premium properties are likely already known to the market and have either been passed over or are under negotiation. Identifying off-market opportunities through an agent with deep local relationships becomes meaningfully more valuable in this environment.

For sellers

The conditions present in May — and likely to intensify through June — are among the more favorable for listings that enter the market prepared. Months of inventory are declining. Buyers are active. Prices, across most of the region, are holding or advancing. The sellers who will achieve optimal outcomes are those who invest in presentation, price with precision relative to their immediate competitive set, and partner with an agent whose marketing reach generates awareness beyond the organic MLS audience. The data does not suggest that overpricing will be absorbed — it suggests that well-priced homes in good condition will transact decisively.

For investors

The investment case in Northern Colorado rests on a supply-constrained long-term thesis that the May data reinforces. With inventory flat to declining, prices holding, and the national rate environment discouraging the discretionary turnover that would otherwise increase supply, the scarcity dynamic is likely to persist. Markets like Fort Collins, Windsor, and Loveland — where price appreciation is positive and inventory remains tight — merit attention from investors considering buy-and-hold strategies. The attached and condo segment, while showing modest price softening, represents a relative entry point for those building a portfolio with longer time horizons.