Real Estate In Perspective

Northern Colorado Market Report — June 2026

Executive Summary — Kelly McBartlett

June carries a reputation as the busiest sales month of the year, and this June earned it. Buyers who sat out the spring stepped back in across Northern Colorado, and the month produced a handful of signals we haven't seen in some time — including a record-setting sale. Let's dive in. Buyers Came Back. Transaction volume flipped positive after months of declines. Fort Collins closed 303 homes this June versus 257 last June, up 18%. Estes Park was the breakout — up 57% year over year, with high-end sales going from a single close last June to seven this year. Timnath is up 23% and Boulder up 9%. The waiting game ended in June, and demand showed up. A Two-Speed Price Market. Here's the indicator worth watching: single-family and attached homes are now moving in opposite directions. Single-family prices (rolling 12 months) are up — Estes Park 5%, Windsor 4%, Fort Collins 3% — while townhome and condo prices are down nearly everywhere: Windsor down 9%, Boulder down 8%, Fort Collins down 4%. For move-up sellers, the single-family side is carrying the strength. For first-time buyers, the attached market is quietly becoming the best value entry point in the region. Berthoud, the Lone Buyer's Market. Every city in the region sits between three and four months of inventory except one: Berthoud, now at 6.4 months — up 28% year over year and right at the six-month line that defines a balanced market. Notably, Berthoud prices are still up 2%, so sellers there aren't conceding — but buyers have negotiating room in Berthoud that simply doesn't exist in Fort Collins or Windsor right now. A Record June at the Top. (top 5% of the market) Boulder recorded a $14,100,000 sale in June — nearly double last June's top sale of $7.5 million and the region's highest of the year. It wasn't alone: Boulder's $4M+ segment closed eight sales versus two a year ago, Fort Collins high-end sales are up 47%, and Timnath up 60%. Meanwhile, the inventory feeding those sales keeps shrinking — Windsor down 35%, Fort Collins down 14%, Denver Metro down 9% — and new high-end listings in Larimer County are down 10%. Strong demand, fewer choices: expect competition and firming prices at the top through the rest of 2026. Overall: The Squeezed Inventory Is Meeting Demand. Inventory kept tightening in June — but this month, buyers showed up anyway. That combination rewards preparation on both sides. Buyers should have pre-approval in hand and a strategy set before the right home appears, because it likely won't wait. Sellers entering a supply-constrained market with a well-prepared home negotiate from strength — and the two-speed price data makes pricing strategy matter more than it has in years. Utilizing all of our proprietary buyer and seller technology, strategy and marketing systems, we're on your side to create success. Feel welcome to contact us to discuss your situation.

— Kelly McBartlett, Principal Agent & Founder

The National Backdrop

Nationally, June told a story of resilience layered over caution. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales dipped 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million — but were still up 2.8% year over year. The median existing-home price reached an all-time high of $440,600, marking the 36th consecutive month of annual price gains. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that affordability has actually improved over the past year because wage growth has outpaced home price growth, even as the median price sets records — a nuance that matters more than the headline number suggests.

Mortgage rates hovered in a narrow band through the month, ending June around 6.49%, essentially flat from May and meaningfully below the roughly 6.8% level of a year ago. That stability appears to have mattered more than the absolute rate: buyers seem to be adjusting to rates in the mid-6% range as a baseline rather than waiting for a return to pandemic-era pricing.

National housing inventory sat at 1.56 million units, a 4.6-month supply — still well short of the six-month mark that defines a balanced market, and inventory growth has begun to stall month over month. That's the same undercurrent we're watching locally, and it's part of why the Northern Colorado data below carries extra weight this month: national and regional constraints are reinforcing one another.

At the top of the market, national data tells an even sharper story. Redfin, which defines luxury as the top 5% of a metro's price range, reported that luxury home prices rose roughly three to five times faster than non-luxury prices through the spring, with luxury buyers behaving as though they are largely insulated from the affordability pressure facing the rest of the market. That national pattern — luxury demand and pricing power outrunning the broader market — is precisely what we're seeing show up in Northern Colorado's top-tier data this month, and we'll walk through where it lines up and where our region tells its own story.

Buyers Came Back

Transaction volume flipped positive across Northern Colorado this June after months of softer activity. Fort Collins closed 303 homes versus 257 a year ago, an 18% increase. Estes Park was the breakout performer, up 57% year over year — a market that had just a single high-end close last June and produced seven this year. Timnath rose 23%, and Boulder posted a 9% gain in closed transactions.

The takeaway: the waiting game that defined much of the spring appears to have ended in June, and demand showed up in measurable volume, not just increased showings or inquiries. That aligns with the national pattern of buyers adjusting to current rate levels rather than continuing to sit on the sidelines for a rate environment that may not materialize.

A Two-Speed Price Market

Here is the indicator most worth watching going into the second half of the year: single-family and attached homes are now moving in opposite directions on price.

Single-family prices, measured on a rolling 12-month basis, are up across the board — Estes Park leads at 5%, Windsor is up 4%, and Fort Collins is up 3%. Meanwhile, townhome and condo prices are declining almost everywhere in the region: Windsor is down 9%, Boulder down 8%, and Fort Collins down 4%.

For move-up sellers with single-family homes, this is a market still rewarding equity growth. For first-time buyers, the attached-home segment is quietly becoming the most accessible entry point the region has offered in some time — softer pricing paired with less competition than the detached market currently carries. This divergence is worth factoring into any conversation about timing, whether the goal is building equity or finding an affordable way in.

Berthoud, the Lone Buyer's Market

Every city we track in the region sits between three and four months of inventory — except one. Berthoud now stands at 6.4 months of supply, up 28% year over year and sitting right at the six-month line that traditionally separates a seller's market from a balanced one.

Notably, Berthoud prices haven't softened in response — single-family values there are still up roughly 2% year over year, so sellers aren't conceding ground. But buyers working in Berthoud have negotiating room that simply does not exist right now in Fort Collins or Windsor, where inventory remains tight. For clients open to the location, it's the one market in our region currently offering leverage without asking sellers to give up on price.

A Record June at the Top

(Luxury tier — the top 5% of the market, defined locally as Northern Colorado $1.15M+)

Boulder recorded a $14.1 million sale in June — nearly double last June's top sale of $7.5 million, and the highest closing anywhere in the region so far this year. It wasn't an isolated event: Boulder's $4M+ segment closed eight sales this June versus two a year ago. Fort Collins high-end sales rose 47%, and Timnath climbed 60%.

At the same time, the inventory feeding that demand keeps shrinking. Luxury homes for sale are down 35% in Windsor, 14% in Fort Collins, and 9% across Denver Metro, while new high-end listings in Larimer County fell 10% year over year. That combination — strong closing activity against a shrinking pool of active listings — is the textbook setup for continued price firming at the top of the market through the remainder of 2026.

This is also where our region's story converges with the national one. Redfin's national data shows luxury prices outpacing non-luxury price growth by three to five times, driven by buyers who are less rate-sensitive and often less financing-dependent. Northern Colorado's top tier is behaving the same way — demand holding firm, inventory tightening, and price growth accelerating even as the broader market moves more cautiously. It's worth noting, too, that Northern Colorado's luxury average sale price of roughly $1.57M already sits meaningfully above the national luxury median of about $1.37–1.39M reported by Redfin — a reminder that "luxury" in Larimer and Weld counties starts at a higher baseline than most of the country.

Regional Snapshot — All Price Points

Rolling data as of June 2026, compared to June 2025

Average sales price figures reflect rolling 12-month averages.

City-Level Snapshot — All Price Points

Luxury Regional Snapshot

Northern Colorado threshold: $1.15M+ · Boulder threshold: $4M+ · Denver Metro/Foothills threshold: $2.4M+

Luxury City Snapshot

City-level threshold: $1.15M+ (Boulder: $4M+)

What This Means for You

Real estate is never a guarantee, and no two homes — or transactions — behave identically. With that said, here's how the data may be worth weighing depending on where you sit:

If you're buying. Preparation is doing more work than it has in months. With inventory tightening across most of the region and demand clearly re-engaged, homes that check the right boxes are less likely to wait. Having financing lined up and a clear strategy before you're in front of the right property may matter more than it did earlier this year. The attached/condo segment, where prices have softened in several cities, may be worth a closer look for buyers who've been priced out of single-family competition.

If you're selling. A supply-constrained market generally favors sellers, but the two-speed price data suggests pricing strategy deserves more attention than a simple "list high" approach. Single-family sellers are operating from a position of relative strength; attached-home sellers may need to price more competitively to match where buyer expectations currently sit. A well-prepared, professionally positioned home tends to negotiate from strength regardless of segment.

If you're relocating or considering the luxury tier. June's top-of-market activity — the record Boulder sale, the jump in $4M+ closings, the acceleration in high-end pricing — suggests continued competition and firming prices at the top through the rest of 2026, consistent with what we're seeing nationally in the luxury segment. Buyers entering this tier should expect fewer options and more competition than the headline "months of inventory" numbers might suggest, given how quickly new listings are being absorbed.

If Berthoud is on your radar. It remains the one market in our region offering genuine buyer leverage without a corresponding price concession from sellers — worth a conversation whether you're buying there or considering how it compares to nearby markets.

Sources

• National Association of Realtors, Existing-Home Sales Report, June 2026 (released July 9, 2026)
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, June–July 2026
• Redfin Luxury Home Market Reports, April–May 2026 (rolling 3-month data)
• MCM Collective proprietary regional and luxury market data, June 2026

Data reflects closed and active listing activity as reported through regional MLS sources for June 2026. Real estate market conditions vary by property, neighborhood, and timing; the analysis above is intended to inform decision-making and should not be read as a guarantee of future performance.