Real Estate In Perspective: September 2026

Rates Cross 7%, Inventory Builds, and the Front Range Splits Into Many Markets

The MCM Collective | Northern Colorado and Denver Metro Market Report | Data through September 2026

Market at a Glance | October 2026

By Kelly McBartlett

September brought a pattern worth understanding: more homes on the shelf, fewer of them changing hands, and prices that barely moved. Here is what the data shows across Northern Colorado, Boulder Valley, and the Denver metro, and what to do with it.

Supply is climbing while closings pull back. Across Larimer and Weld counties, homes for sale rose 12% year over year to 4,037, while closed sales fell 19%, to 834 from 1,028. Months of inventory moved to 4.25, up from 3.7 a year ago. The Denver metro tells the same story: closings down 20%, and the city of Denver now sits at 4.9 months of supply versus 4.2 last September. This is not a market in trouble. It is a market where buyers finally have room to be selective.

Prices are holding anyway. Even with slower closings, single-family pricing stayed remarkably steady. Larimer County's rolling 12-month average is $696,533, essentially flat against $698,050 last year. Weld is $569,630 (down 1%), Boulder County is $1,088,937 (up 1%), and Denver is $915,332 (up 4%). The softness is in attached homes: Windsor is down 9% to $421,633, Boulder is down 7% to $593,832, and Larimer is down 2%. Timnath bucked that trend, up 8% to $594,235.

Berthoud flips the script. Berthoud's inventory jumped 54% to 212 homes, and months of supply stretched to 6.9 from 4.1. Yet closed sales rose 39%, to 39 from 28. More choice appears to be pulling buyers off the sidelines there. Compare that to Timnath, where closings fell to 14 from 33, and Fort Collins, where closings slipped 17% to 170 and months of supply rose to 3.6 from 3.1.

High-end Fort Collins bucks the county trend. Countywide, Larimer closings at $1,150,000 and above fell to 30 from 40, and dollar volume dropped to $50.3 million from $63.3 million. Fort Collins went the other direction. Thirteen high-end homes closed versus 12 a year ago, at an average of $1,929,103, up 40% from $1,374,108. That produced $25.1 million in volume, up 52%, and roughly half of the county's entire high-end total. The top sale in the city reached $4,390,000.

The Denver metro upper tier is climbing. At $2,400,000 and above, closings in the city of Denver rose 26% to 24, with $80.4 million in volume, up 29%. Arapahoe County closed 14 versus 11, and Jefferson County closed 11 versus 7, with volume up 45% to $32.6 million. Douglas County moved the opposite way: 7 closings against 17, and 10.7 months of supply, even as it produced the metro's highest sale at $7,400,000. In Evergreen, six homes closed at $2,400,000 and above versus three last year, totaling $19.0 million.

What this means for buyers and sellers. For buyers, selection is your advantage. Berthoud, Estes Park (7.7 months of supply, up from 6.7), and the $4,000,000-plus tier in Boulder (15.3 months) offer the most room to negotiate; take that data and use it. For sellers, with most of our markets now above four months of supply, pricing from last spring's headlines is the real risk. The homes that are closing are priced to the current data from day one, and you should build your strategy around that.

If you are curious where your home stands, we are happy to pull a no-pressure number for you. Utilizing all of our proprietary buyer and seller technology, strategy and marketing systems, we're on your side to create success. Feel welcome to contact us to discuss your situation.

The Short Version

September was the month the interest-rate story caught up with the housing story. Four things define it:

• Closings fell sharply, and inventory kept building. Northern Colorado recorded 834 closings, down 18.9% from 1,028 a year ago, while active listings rose 12.5% to 4,037. Months of inventory climbed to 4.25 from 3.70. The Denver Metro followed the same script: 2,209 closings (down 19.9%), 10,444 active listings (up 7.8%), and 3.86 months of inventory against 3.52.
• Prices held, with a widening gap beneath the surface. Northern Colorado's single-family average was $633,082 (down 0.6%), and the Denver Metro's $790,681 was up 1.3%. Attached and condo pricing continued to soften: down 3.4% in Northern Colorado and down 4.4% in Boulder County.
• Luxury is a market of pockets, not a market. At $1,150,000+, Northern Colorado closed 42 homes (down 17.6%) with months of supply at 8.1. In the Denver Metro, Denver County and Arapahoe County luxury closings rose more than 25% each. Douglas County fell 59%.
• The national backdrop turned less forgiving. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate on September 16, the first increase since 2023, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved from 6.71% to 7.03% over four weekly surveys. We address how this reaches the Front Range, and how to position, below.

The National Picture: What Happened in September 2026

A local report is only useful when read against the forces acting on it. September delivered several of them in quick succession.

The Fed reversed course. On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%. It was the first increase in more than three years, announced in Kevin Warsh's first press conference format as Chair with inflation the stated rationale. The Committee's median projection points to one further increase before year-end. Consumer price inflation ran 3.4% in July, according to the figures cited in the Case-Shiller release.

Mortgage rates followed, and then some. Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed average was 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24, versus 6.30% on the same date a year earlier. The 15-year fixed climbed from 6.04% to 6.42% over the same stretch. Rates are now roughly 70 basis points above last September, and September's first reading was already the highest in about 13 months.

To make that concrete: on a Larimer County single-family home at the $696,533 average price with 20% down, principal and interest at 6.30% is approximately $3,449 per month. At 7.03% it is approximately $3,718, or about $269 more per month (roughly 8%), for an identical house. Illustrative only, excluding taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance.

National sales eased while inventory reached a multi-year high. The National Association of REALTORS reported on September 10 that August existing-home sales slipped 2.0% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, 1.2% below a year earlier and below the 4 million pace for the first time since June 2025. Year-to-date sales remain up 1.6%. Inventory reached 1.62 million homes, up 5.9% year over year and the first reading above 1.6 million since November 2019, which put supply at 4.9 months versus 4.6 a year ago. The national median price was $429,100, up 1.6% year over year and the 38th consecutive annual increase. Existing-home sales in the West were roughly unchanged for the month.

Home prices are rising, but slower than inflation. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National index, released September 29, showed a 1.9% annual gain for July (up from 1.6% in June). With consumer prices up 3.4%, that is the 14th consecutive month of declines in real terms. The 20-city composite rose 2.5%, with Chicago (6.9%) and New York (5.8%) leading. The national story is no longer "prices are falling"; it is "prices are failing to keep pace."

Luxury is cooling in aggregate and diverging locally. Realtor.com's August Luxury Housing Report (published September 10) put the national entry point to luxury at $1,200,005, down 4.0% from both July and a year earlier; the 95th-percentile threshold fell to $1,894,230 (down 4.2% year over year) and the 99th to $5,163,712. Lower list-price thresholds, as Realtor.com's economist noted, do not necessarily mean weaker demand, and some demand signals improved: entry-level luxury listings spent four fewer days on the market than a year earlier. Redfin's spring data pointed the same way, with luxury prices rising faster than non-luxury prices (3.6% versus 1.4% for the three months ending April), the strongest luxury demand concentrated in San Francisco on the back of the AI boom, and Florida metros dominating the ultra-high-end rankings. Luxury buyers, the commentary suggests, are less sensitive to rate moves, and that is the thread to hold onto as we look at our own data.

How We Compare

Two cautions apply to that table. National figures are seasonally adjusted and for August; ours are unadjusted September MLS counts, so the sales comparison overstates the gap. And the comparison still tells a story: inventory is building faster locally than nationally, and sales are lagging, while months of supply remain below the national 4.9. Our markets are not oversupplied by national standards. They are simply less tight than they were, and less tight than they were a month ago: Northern Colorado's months of inventory moved from 4.05 in August to 4.25 in September, and active listings from 3,860 to 4,037.

One timing point deserves emphasis. September closings reflect contracts largely written in July and August, when rates were near 6.6%-6.7%. The jump to 7% arrived after most of those buyers had locked. If rates stay near current levels, the full effect on contract activity may show up in October and November closings. We cannot know that, but it is the thing to watch.

Northern Colorado and the Front Range: All Price Points

The Region

Every major county but one saw fewer closings and more listings. Larimer County closed 422 homes (down 19.5% from 524) on 2,176 active listings (up 13.0%), lifting months of inventory to 4.4 from 3.9. Weld County closed 412 (down 18.3% from 504) with 1,861 active (up 11.9%) and 4.1 months versus 3.5. Combined: 834 closings and 4,037 listings, 4.25 months.

The Denver Metro's 2,209 closings were down 19.9%. Adams County fell 25.0%, Douglas 22.8%, Denver 22.2%, and Arapahoe 13.5%. Broomfield County was the lone exception at 84 closings, up 10.5% from 76, with the tightest supply in the region at 3.2 months. Boulder County closed 306 (down 13.1%) with supply at 4.5 months, and Jefferson County (Denver Foothills) closed 590 (down 12.2%) at 3.6 months.

The largest listing increases were in Larimer (13.0%), Denver County (12.0%), Weld (11.9%) and Jefferson (10.4%). Denver County now has the longest supply in the metro at 4.9 months (4.2 a year ago), a figure that matters for anyone watching for an urban-core inflection.

Pricing

Single-family pricing was remarkably stable. On a rolling 12-month basis, Larimer County was $696,533 (down 0.2%), Weld $569,630 (down 1.1%), Boulder $1,088,937 (up 0.9%), Broomfield $822,989 (up 1.7%), Arapahoe $763,555 (up 1.4%), and Douglas $891,505 (down 0.7%). Denver County led at $915,332, up 3.7%.

Attached and condo pricing is where the pressure sits. Weld County fell 5.7% to $360,306, Broomfield 5.9% to $468,859, and Boulder 4.4% to $542,504. Larimer was down 1.5% to $430,950. Denver County bucked the trend, up 2.6% to $584,367.

A methodological note: regional averages in our source data are simple averages of county figures, not transaction-weighted. They are a reliable directional guide, and county-level numbers are the more precise measure.

The Cities

September separated the cities more than any month this year.

Berthoud is a story of supply. Active listings rose 53.6% to 212, closings rose 39.3% to 39, and months of inventory jumped to 6.9 from 4.1 (6.0 in August). Berthoud and Estes Park (7.7 months) are the two most buyer-favorable markets we track.

Loveland gave back its August lead. August was a banner month, with 143 closings and sales up 18%. September came in at 102, down 26.1% from 138, with inventory up 12.8% to 502 and months of inventory at 4.0 (3.6 in August). One month is not a trend, but it is a reminder that a single strong print is not a trajectory.

Fort Collins and Longmont still hold the tightest supply. Fort Collins closed 170 homes (down 16.7%) on 740 listings (up 13.7%) at 3.6 months, up from 3.1. Longmont closed 110 (down 8.3%) at 3.5 months, essentially unchanged from 3.4. Fort Collins single-family pricing rose 3.4% to $740,518. Longmont's fell 3.2% to $719,682.

Windsor and Timnath softened. Windsor closed 72 homes (down 23.4%), with months of inventory rising to 4.4 from 3.4, though single-family pricing rose 3.6% to $727,961. Timnath closed 14 versus 33 (a 57.6% drop on a small base), yet its attached pricing rose 7.7% to $594,235, the strongest attached gain we track.

Boulder and Evergreen grew. Boulder (city) closed 117, up 11.4%, though months of inventory remain elevated at 5.8 and single-family pricing slipped 1.5% to $1,623,832, with attached down 7.1% to $593,832. Evergreen closed 41 (up 10.8%) as listings rose 21.0% to 236, supply at 5.3 months. Estes Park closed 26 (down 25.7%) at 7.7 months, though attached pricing rose 3.3% to $556,249.

The Luxury Market

Our luxury thresholds are local top-5% definitions: $1,150,000 for Northern Colorado, $4,000,000 for Boulder, and $2,400,000 for the Denver Metro and Foothills. By construction these segments are thin, so a handful of transactions can move percentages dramatically. We read direction and supply rather than any single percentage.

Northern Colorado: $1,150,000+

The region closed 42 homes (down 17.6% from 51) for $65.0 million (down 19.5%), against 432 active listings (up 5.6%) and 89 new listings (down 11.9%). Months of supply rose to 8.1 from 7.05. Larimer County closed 30 (down 25%) for $50.3 million; Weld closed 12 (up 9.1%) for $14.8 million.

The volume-weighted average sale price was approximately $1.55 million, down about 2.3% from $1.58 million (the source file's simple average shows -0.6%). Larimer's average rose 5.8% to $1,675,480, while Weld's fell 7.0% to $1,475,375. The region's top sale was $6.2 million, in Windsor, versus $3.15 million a year ago; Larimer's top sale was $4.39 million in Fort Collins, up 39.4%.

Fort Collins' upper tier tightened and traded at higher prices. Thirteen closings (up 8.3%) delivered $25.1 million (up 52.1%), with an average of $1,929,103, up 40.4% on that $4.39 million sale. Yet new listings fell 43.8% to 18, active listings were flat at 72, and months of supply were 4.4 (3.9 last year), the tightest luxury tier among our cities. For a seller of a well-positioned $1.15M+ home, Fort Collins offers the least competition in the region.

Loveland, Longmont and Evergreen showed demand. Loveland closed 8 luxury homes (up 33%) for $11.6 million (up 11.8%), but with 67 active listings, supply sits at 9.8 months. Longmont closed 9 (up 28.6%) for $16.2 million (up 26.4%), with a $2.9 million top sale and 7.1 months of supply. Evergreen closed 6 versus 3, with volume of $19.0 million (up 82.9%) and supply falling to 6.3 months from 9.3.

Berthoud and Estes Park are the cautionary tales. Berthoud's luxury inventory rose 43.2% to 63 homes with new listings up 137.5% to 19, but only 4 closed, putting supply at 15.8 months. Estes Park's luxury market logged a single closing ($1.175 million) against nine a year ago, with 41 active listings and 8.2 months of supply on small-sample math. Timnath closed two ($2.9 million, down 52%). Windsor recorded eight closings (up 14.3%) and a 5.7-month supply, the second-tightest in the region after Fort Collins and Timnath (4.1).

Boulder: $4,000,000+

Boulder's top tier remains the most inventory-heavy market we track. Two closings (unchanged) totaled $8.4 million (down 17.9%), against 88 active listings (up 4.8%) and 21 new, yielding 22.5 months of supply versus 19.4. The county's top sale was $4.4 million versus $5.65 million. A seller at this level is competing with a deep shelf of inventory and a narrow buyer pool. Pricing discipline, unusual property attributes and patient marketing matter more here than in any other segment.

Denver Metro: $2,400,000+

The metro closed 45 luxury homes (down 8.2% from 49) for $154.5 million (down 7.1%), with months of supply at 6.34 versus 5.82. The source file reports an average of $3.55 million (up 8.4%), but weighting by transactions gives about $3.43 million, up roughly 1.1% from $3.40 million. Treat the headline as essentially flat.

The interesting story is the dispersion:

• Denver County: 24 closings (up 26.3%), $80.4 million (up 29.4%), average $3,351,572, top sale $5.0 million. Active listings fell 8.3% to 133, and months of supply compressed to 4.9 from 6.2.
• Arapahoe County: 14 closings (up 27.3%), $46.0 million (up 12.1%), a $5.44 million top sale, and the tightest supply in the metro at 4.2 months (4.8 last year). The average, $3,283,697, was down 11.9%.
• Douglas County: 7 closings (down 58.8%), $28.1 million (down 51.4%), months of supply at 10.7 versus 7.9, and a $7.4 million top sale, the metro's highest (down from $8.5 million).
• Jefferson County (Foothills): 11 closings (up 57.1%), $32.6 million (up 45.3%), though active listings rose 25% to 90 and months of supply sit at 10.9.
• Broomfield and Adams: Both essentially dormant at this price point. Broomfield has 7 active listings and Adams 8, with no closings in either.

The pattern is consistent with what national commentary describes: the high end is not weakening everywhere, and where it is stable, it is stable because of local factors (wealth concentration, relocation inflows, specific product), not the national mood.

What It Means

We never speak in guarantees, because no two homes or situations are alike. The data does support a handful of considered suggestions.

If you are selling. The listing-to-showing conversion your home faced a year ago has changed. Buyers have more choices, rates are higher, and the same property now needs sharper pricing and presentation. Pricing correctly on day one has grown more consequential. The strongest relative positions are the tight-supply markets: Fort Collins, Longmont, Broomfield and Denver County at the luxury tier. If you are in Berthoud, Estes Park, Boulder's top tier or Douglas County luxury, expect a longer exposure window and consider whether staging, targeted marketing and flexible terms (including rate buydowns or seller credits) are worth more than a headline number.

If you are buying. September's rate move narrowed affordability, but it also deepened negotiating leverage in exactly the places listings are building. Berthoud (6.9 months), Estes Park (7.7), Boulder (5.8) and Evergreen (5.3) offer the most room. A rate buydown negotiated with the seller can be worth meaningfully more than a small price reduction, because it reduces the payment for years. Cash buyers hold the strongest hand, especially above $1.15 million.

If you are an investor. Attached and condo pricing is the pressure point: down 3.4% in Northern Colorado, 5.7% in Weld and 7.1% in Boulder city. Softer entry prices may appeal to long-term holders, but rate-driven carrying costs and rising inventory argue for conservative underwriting. Timnath's attached segment (up 7.7%) is a reminder that micro-markets behave differently from their counties. Single-family stability, with flat-to-modest pricing and tight supply in Fort Collins and Longmont, supports the case for holding well-located assets.

If you are a legacy owner. Equity in single-family homes remains intact: prices are roughly where they were a year ago. For owners considering a long-term hold, a transition to heirs, or a trade-up, higher rates argue for planning rather than urgency. For owners with low-rate mortgages, the lock-in effect remains a reason the listings pool is not larger still.

If you are relocating. Our region remains less supplied than the national average (4.25 months versus 4.9), and relocation buyers have a rare combination right now: more inventory, motivated sellers in several submarkets, and prices that have not moved sharply. The tradeoff is financing cost, so a lender conversation is worth having before touring.

What We Are Watching in Q4

1. The October and November closing data. If September's rate jump reduces contract activity, we expect it to show here.
2. The Fed's December meeting. The Committee's median projection points to another increase. Long-term rates may already reflect this, but the direction of policy matters for buyer sentiment.
3. Listing behavior. Sellers who do not need to sell may withdraw rather than reduce prices in a slower season, which would hold inventory in check.
4. Luxury stock-wealth effects. National commentary links high-end demand to equity wealth; a sustained market pullback would be a risk to that segment.
5. Berthoud and Boulder's top tier. Both carry unusually high supply; they are where a pricing reset, if any, would appear first.

Full Data Tables

All figures are September 2026 versus September 2025. "Boulder" equals Boulder Valley, and "Jefferson" equals Denver Foothills. N/A indicates no reported figure.

Table 1: Regional, All Price Points (Supply and Demand)

Table 2: Regional, All Price Points (Average Sales Price, Rolling 12 Months)

Table 3: Cities, All Price Points (Supply and Demand)

Table 4: Cities, All Price Points (Average Sales Price, Rolling 12 Months)

Table 5: Regional Luxury (Supply and Demand)

Thresholds: Larimer, Weld and Northern Colorado $1,150,000; Boulder $4,000,000; all others $2,400,000.

Table 6: Regional Luxury (Pricing, Volume and Top Sale)

*Source-file simple average of county averages. Volume-weighted: approximately $3.43M (2026) versus $3.40M (2025), +1.1%. Northern Colorado volume-weighted: approximately $1.55M versus $1.58M, -2.3%.

Table 7: City Luxury (Supply and Demand)

Thresholds: $1,150,000 for all Northern Colorado cities; Boulder $4,000,000; Denver Metro and Evergreen $2,400,000.

Table 8: City Luxury (Pricing, Volume and Top Sale)

Notes on the Data and Sources

• Local data: MCM Collective monthly MLS pulls for September 2026 versus September 2025. Months of inventory and supply are as reported in the source files. Rolling 12-month averages smooth short-term swings; they are slower to reflect new conditions than monthly figures.
• Small samples: Luxury segments are thin. A single transaction can swing percentages, as with Estes Park (one closing) and Timnath (two). Weigh counts and supply alongside percentages.
• National data: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, minutes and press conference (September 16, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (September 3, 10, 17 and 24, 2026); National Association of REALTORS existing-home sales for August (released September 10, 2026); S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices for July (released September 29, 2026); Realtor.com Luxury Housing Reports for July and August 2026; Redfin luxury market reports (May and July 2026).
• Definitions differ. Realtor.com's luxury tiers are national list-price percentiles; Redfin defines luxury as the top 5% of each metro's price range; our thresholds are local top-5% sale-price breakpoints. NAR figures are seasonally adjusted and cover August; ours are unadjusted and cover September.

This report is informational and not a guarantee of future conditions or a substitute for advice specific to your property or finances. Real estate is local, and no two homes are alike.

Let's Talk About Your Situation

Whether you are buying, selling, relocating, or planning a long-term hold, we can pull the numbers for your neighborhood and price point and help you build a strategy around them. Feel welcome to contact us.

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